Weekly Market Recap:

U.S. equities advanced this week with the Dow up +1.21%, the S&P 500 gaining +1.11%, the Nasdaq rising +1.13%, and the Russell 2000 increasing +0.98%. The S&P 500 hit a fresh all-time high, closing above 5800 for the first time. Banks, semiconductors, transports, and asset managers outperformed, while Nvidia (+7.9%) was a standout among tech, though Tesla (-12.9%) was underwhelmed with its Robotaxi event. Laggards included utilities, REITs, and oil services.

Economic and Fed Updates: Fed officials reinforced a data-driven approach, and inflation data was slightly above expectations. Consumer sentiment missed estimates, with inflation concerns rising.

Corporate Highlights:

• JPMorgan (+5.2%) and Wells Fargo (+7.1%) exceeded earnings expectations.

• Amazon (+1.2%) announced its largest October shopping event with Prime Big Deal Days.

• Fastenal (+9.5%) reported strong new account wins.

Commodities and Treasuries: Treasury yields rose further, while the dollar strengthened. Gold increased +0.3%, and WTI crude was up +1.6%.

The recent announcement from the Social Security Administration regarding a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2025 highlights a critical issue facing millions of beneficiaries. This increase, averaging around $50 per month, is the smallest adjustment since 2021, raising concerns about the adequacy of support for older Americans in today’s economic landscape. The 2.5% COLA reflects a welcome slowdown in inflation; however, it comes on the heels of significantly larger increases in recent years—an impressive 8.7% in 2023, followed by 3.2% in 2024. These prior adjustments were essential for seniors grappling with escalating costs. Nevertheless, as many older adults depend primarily on Social Security for their financial well-being, even a modest increase may not suffice to address the ongoing challenges of rising living expenses. Compounding this issue is the anticipated increase in Medicare Part B premiums, projected to rise to $185 per month in 2025. This adjustment will further diminish the impact of the COLA on countless beneficiaries. For many, the reality is stark: the financial pressures they face are relentless, making it difficult to cover essential needs like groceries and transportation. It is imperative for lawmakers to acknowledge the economic hurdles confronting seniors and to ensure that COLAs accurately reflect the true cost of living. As the population ages, the stability and sufficiency of Social Security benefits will play a crucial role in enabling older Americans to live with dignity and security in their retirement years.

Next Week:

Notable Earnings:

• Tuesday (10/15)

  • Bank of America ($BAC)

  • Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ)

  • The Goldman Sachs Group ($GS)

• Wednesday (10/16)

  • Morgan Stanley ($MS)

  • United Airlines Holdings ($UAL)

• Thursday (10/17)

  • Discover Financial Services ($DFS)

  • Netflix ($NFLX)

  • Webster Financial ($WBS)

• Friday (10/18)

  • American Express ($AXP)

  • Procter & Gamble ($PG)

  • Ally Financial ($ALLY)

Notable Ex-Dividend Dates:

• Tuesday (10/15)

  • AbbVie ($ABBV) 3.21%

  • Hormel Foods ($HRL) 3.62%

• Wednesday (10/16)

  • The PNC Financial Services Group ($PNC) 3.41%

• Thursday (10/17)

  • EOG Resources ($EOG) 2.96%

  • Quaker Chemical ($KWR) 1.07%

• Friday (10/18)

  • Cracker Barrel Old Country Store ($CBRL) 2.43%

  • Procter & Gamble ($PG) 2.40%

  • Williams-Sonoma ($WSM) 1.58%

*Dividend Aristocrat